The Bank of Spain forecasts a decrease in the growth of the Spanish economy that is unprecedented in recent history, with a decline that has already reached 9%. In a document published on Monday, the body calculates that activity in Spain registered a quarterly decrease of 4.7% between January and March.
For the year as a whole, the Bank of Spain has established three scenarios. Two of them are based on the lockdown lasting eight weeks – at the moment, the Government has proposed a third extension, which is pending approval, until 9 May – and the third where the State of Emergency goes on for three months.
In these three scenarios, the impact on the Spanish economy would be: -6.6% in the best case, with the “almost complete” normalisation of activity at the end of the lockdown; -8.8% in the second case, with an almost complete return to normality in the fourth quarter; and -13.6% in the worst case, with an incomplete return to normal activity by the end of the year, in particular, in the sectors relating to hospitality and leisure.